Venue Model Output — Today
Quantile vectors for every IPL venue: phase run-rates, wicket share, dew delta, chase-win probability. Reproducible numbers — not a tipster column.
Ref: Sunday, 26 July 2026 · Short boundaries, batting paradise
M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru
Model output · v1.81st-innings total: 188 (168–208)
Phase run-rate (runs / over)
- Powerplay (1–6)
- 8.9 (8.2–9.6)
- Middle (7–15)
- 9.4 (8.7–10.1)
- Death (16–20) conceded
- 10.9 (9.6–12.2)
Wicket share (per innings)
- Spin share
- 28% (18–38%)
- Pace share
- 72% (62–82%)
- Dew delta on xFP (inn-2)
- +0.21 (0.11–0.31)
Pre-toss outcome probability
Probability the chasing team wins, pre-toss. Updated once Toss is public.
52% (45–59%)
Captaincy tilt (model suggestion)
Tilt captaincy toward powerplay batters and new-ball bowlers (Head, Salt, Boult, Bumrah).
This is a venue-derived tilt, not a single pick. Run the captain overlay for the match-specific ranking.
How to read these bands.The middle value is the venue model’s point estimate. The two side values form the 80% prediction band — under typical weather conditions 4 out of 5 matches at this venue will sit inside the band. Wider bands mean higher match-to-match variance; narrower bands mean the venue is more predictable.
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