Today’s Optimal XI
Live ranked output of the CricJosh xFP engine under the 100-credit cap. Each player row carries a point estimate, an 80% confidence band and the dominant signal that drove the ranking. Refreshes automatically once Toss and playing XI are public.
Optimal XI (output)
Total credits: 99.0 · max from one team: 6 (SRH)| Role | Player | Team | Cr. | xFP | 80% band | Dominant signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WK | Phil Salt | RCB | 9.5 | 78.2 | 61–95 | powerplay vs LH pace |
| BAT | Rajat Patidar | RCB | 10.5 | 71.6 | 54–88 | venue form (Uppal) |
| BAT | Travis Head | SRH | 11.0 | 86.4 | 68–105 | powerplay form |
| AR | Heinrich Klaasen | SRH | 10.0 | 64.0 | 46–82 | vs LH spin (death) |
| AR | Sunil Narine | KKR | 9.0 | 58.7 | 42–75 | economy at Eden |
| BOW | Jasprit Bumrah | MI | 11.0 | 69.3 | 52–86 | death-over economy |
| BOW | Rashid Khan | GT | 10.5 | 62.1 | 46–78 | middle-overs wicket probability |
| BOW | T. Boult | MI | 9.5 | 55.4 | 40–71 | new-ball swing (Uppal) |
| BAT | S. Sudharsan | GT | 9.5 | 60.8 | 44–77 | vs RH pace (middle) |
| WK | Ishan Kishan | SRH | 8.5 | 49.2 | 34–64 | lower-order cameo |
| AR | A. Russell | KKR | 10.5 | 58.0 | 38–78 | death-overs batting + bowl |
xFP = expected fantasy points from the regression. The 80% band is the residual interval from the model and is published for every row so you can see how confident the engine is in the ordering.
Method
How the engine produces this table
- 1
Pull inputs
Playing XI feed, venue dew/temperature, Cricsheet last-30-over ball-by-ball sample.
- 2
Score each player
Batters and bowlers ranked by expected fantasy points (xFP) under the Dream11 scoring table. Confidence interval is the 80% band from the regression residual.
- 3
Solve under constraints
Integer programme picks the optimal 11 within the 100-credit cap, respecting role mix (1 WK, 3-6 BAT, 1-4 AR, 3-6 BOWL) and max-7-from-one-team.
- 4
Apply captaincy overlay
Captaincy multiplier overlay adds a venue/phase uplift on top of xFP. The captain picker is run as a separate ranking.
- 5
Publish & log
Output is published with full player rows. After the match the row-level outcomes are written back to the backtest log so the rolling hit-rate stays auditable.
Read the band, not the rank.If the top row has a wide band (e.g. 38–78) it means the engine isn’t confident in the rank ordering — any of the next 3–4 rows are plausible. The captain overlay will tilt captaincy towards rows with tighter bands.