The Dream11 Workbench
Working interface for the CricJosh expected-fantasy-points engine. Every output below is a ranked list from the model — never a single locked pick. Pick the decision you need to make first; the rest of the page is feeds, methodology and backtest history.
Four ranked outputs that drive every fantasy selection
Captain / VC ranking
Multiplicative captain overlay over the expected-fantasy-points (xFP) table. Returns 1–10 with 80% confidence intervals and the dominant signal for each row (form, venue, match-up, dew).
Optimal XI under 100-credit cap
Integer-programmed team selection respecting role constraints (1WK / 3-6BAT / 1-4AR / 3-6BOWL) and max-7-from-one-team. Includes alternates if the playing-XI feed is stale.
Venue behaviour score
Quantified pitch output: powerplay run-rate, death-over economy, dew delta, batting-depth score. Used to weight captaincy overlay on slow vs flat venues.
Live win-probability band
Polling current run-rate against historical chase curves. Returns a probability band (e.g. 38–46%) rather than a single number. Live during play.
Inputs
Live data feeds feeding the workbench
- Cricsheet ball-by-balldaily
Historical regression base
- ICC / BCCI official score feedlive
Live win-probability polling
- Opta-Jackpot player trackerper-match
Bowler workload, role splits
- Internal dew/temperature modelhourly
Innings-2 win probability
Backtest log
Rolling 12-week captaincy hit-rate
| Week | Captain top-1 | Top-2 hit |
|---|---|---|
| W26-2026 | KL Rahul | 2/2 |
| W25-2026 | Shubman Gill | 1/2 |
| W24-2026 | Travis Head | 2/2 |
The 12-week rolling average is published weekly on the home page. Long-run target: top-2 hit-rate ≥ 30% (against a uniform-distribution null of ~20%).
Documentation
How to read the workbench — long-form notes
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